Portfolio

1. Spatial and Wildfire Risk Analyses

Georeferencing Example

2. Satellite Observation and Vegetation

NDVI – Satellite-based Vegetation Assessment

NDVI, or Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, is used to assess the density and health of vegetation in a given area, with data obtained via satellite imagery. I downloaded the NDVI data from the Copernicus database as a TIFF file and clipped it to the boundaries of Croatia.

The colors on the map represent different levels of vegetation:

Greener shades indicate healthier or denser vegetation
Red, pink and pale shades indicate a lack of vegetation or bare, rocky surfaces
Yellow areas represent moderate vegetation or transition zones, such as grasslands, early-stage agricultural fields, or areas with vegetation that is present but not particularly dense or healthy

NDVI vegetation Croatia

NDVI is widely used in various applications, including:

Agriculture for monitoring crop health and yield forecasting,
Ecology for tracking ecosystem changes,
Resource management for drought and irrigation monitoring,
Climate change studies for observing vegetation changes related to changing climate conditions.

❄️ Winter Wonderland from Space

Data source: Copernicus, Sentinel-3 satellite.

3. Climate Projections for Croatia and Europe

Did you know?

🌊 Climate projections indicate a rise in sea levels across Europe, except in the north around Sweden and Finland, where sea levels are expected to fall.
🌡️ Climate change will bring the greatest increase in average annual temperature to areas such as the Alps, Dinara and Velebit.
🌞 With the rise in average annual temperature, fewer frost days, milder winters and a lower frequency of extreme low temperatures are expected, which could significantly reduce heating needs during the winter months.

Sea level change (in meters) – mid-century

Change in average annual temperature (°C) – mid-century

Change in average annual temperature in Croatia (°C)

Read more in my recent paper "Overview of Climate Projections for Croatia and Their Impacts on the Economy and Financial System": which Croatian regions are most exposed to climate risks, how climate change could redefine macroeconomic variables, and how to manage those risks.
[Read the paper (PDF, Croatian) →]

Analysis of Climate Extremes: Number of Days Above 35°C

With the global increase in average annual temperature, the number of days above 35°C is expected to rise. The first map on the left (RCP4.5) shows a more moderate increase, with a smaller rise in extremely hot days, reflecting the impact of mitigation measures. Darker blue shades indicate areas with less change, while lighter blues and oranges represent moderate to high changes.

The second map (RCP8.5) shows a significantly higher number of hot days in eastern Croatia. Red shades indicate regions that may experience an increase in the number of extremely hot days, often exceeding 10 more days compared to the reference period (1981-2010).

RCP4.5 – moderate scenario

RCP8.5 – high-emission scenario

These changes present high risks to human health, manifesting as increased frequency of heat waves with potentially severe, even fatal, health consequences. Extreme heat waves negatively affect labor productivity and economic efficiency, reducing workforce capacity and availability. Such climate changes may drive migration in search of better living conditions, affecting labor supply, wages, social inequality, and both supply and demand.

These maps are based on raster data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and show CORDEX project simulations for the mid-term period (2041-2060), using two different emission scenarios: RCP4.5 (moderate emissions with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (high emissions, business as usual).

More Projections

Precipitation (RX1day), long-term change (2081-2100)

Precipitation Change RX1day

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6), medium-term change (2041-2060)

SPI6 Medium Term

4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

In Croatia, as in the euro area, the energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for about 70% of total emissions in Croatia and 80% in the euro area. Within this sector, emissions sources are further divided into five main energy sub-sectors, the most significant being energy transformation (mainly electricity and heat production from fossil fuels), transport, and the general consumption sector (residential and commercial buildings).

Over the past thirty years, energy transformation has contributed about 20% of total emissions in Croatia and 27% in the euro area, with a noticeable decreasing trend in its share. In contrast, transport emissions have steadily increased in recent years, even surpassing emissions from energy transformation in the last observed year. In 2020, transport accounted for 24% of Croatia’s total emissions and 23% in the euro area. This sub-sector includes road, air, maritime and rail transport, with road transport being the dominant source.

Croatia

Euro Area

Note: Emission sources and removals included in the dataset following the IPCC Common Reporting framework (also used by the UNFCCC) are divided into five main sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), and Waste. The largest sector, Energy, is subdivided into: Energy Transformation, Industry and Construction, Transport, General Consumption, and Fugitive Emissions. Euro area values refer to the average excluding Croatia. Due to rounding, total shares may not always sum to 100%.
Source: Author’s calculation based on UNFCCC data